I guess the key thing is accidents in aviation are rarely just one factor such as the wind off the hill, its one factor. A number of things usually come together and increasing all the risks to the point of almost certainty.
As someone said to me if you had to write up your own incident report and tick off the risks then that can act as a good gauge:- Wind significantly off the hill: tick
- Wind strength on the limit or beyond: tick (and deteriorating ie. getting stronger)
- Very thermic and gusty: tick
- Only pilot flying: (not ticked, however the other pilot was a world champion)
- Fatigued: tick (I had waited all day had one sweaty walk and probably not drunk enough water, it took 3 bags of saline to re-hydrate me)
- Not Current: (not ticked, very current)
- Lack of Wing/harness experience: (not ticked, experienced on the type and harness)
Those are some of the things I ignored in the quest for a flight hence the accident.
Carl, as you said I think its good to be cautions as its safe however I think its also good to push and slowly develop and become a better pilot in the context of your knowledge and practical skills and balancing the two. The key thing which I normally do and had done on that occasion is run though this list during the pre-flight 'C' Conditions. For example if the conditions are thermic but everything else is okay then yes its an increased risk but your not stacking them all up.
However this is all good but the other big factor to add in is the nature and mindset of the pilot at the time....what's driving the pilot to want to fly that day that might push him or her to ignore the signs. We use works like 'competitive', 'bold' a 'pioneer' or 'follower'. What's driving it: an XC flight, competition, position in the XC League, getting a longer flight, a PB, driven far and want to fly regardless or just lack of knowledge. In my case I've left a hill an not flown on more occasions that I can recall after a 3 hour round trip. On this day my check on the above list kept me sitting on the ground watching two very experienced pilots do battle with the conditions. I abandoned all that data (above) to chase the last flight of the day for an XC....that's because I also have a competitive edge. There is no harm in being competitive as it helps progress those who are but also balancing the risks has to go along with it and at least I've learned from it and will be putting it to good use. This sport can be as safe or as risky as we make it.
However this is all good but the other big factor to add in is the nature and mindset of the pilot at the time....what's driving the pilot to want to fly that day that might push him or her to ignore the signs. We use works like 'competitive', 'bold' a 'pioneer' or 'follower'. What's driving it: an XC flight, competition, position in the XC League, getting a longer flight, a PB, driven far and want to fly regardless or just lack of knowledge. In my case I've left a hill an not flown on more occasions that I can recall after a 3 hour round trip. On this day my check on the above list kept me sitting on the ground watching two very experienced pilots do battle with the conditions. I abandoned all that data (above) to chase the last flight of the day for an XC....that's because I also have a competitive edge. There is no harm in being competitive as it helps progress those who are but also balancing the risks has to go along with it and at least I've learned from it and will be putting it to good use. This sport can be as safe or as risky as we make it.
On Fri, Aug 14, 2015 at 12:33 PM, Tim Pentreath <tim.pentreath@gmail.com> wrote:
On 14 August 2015 at 11:27, francis rich <francis@jfdiuk.com> wrote:Interesting viewpoint Bob.
No, a common sense viewpoint.Yet a defined limit is stated in the site guide. I assumed it had some basis in safe use of a site.
In the sites guide for Liddington it says NW and SW. It doesn't specify how many degrees either side is acceptable. On the map it shows some tolerance either side in a graphical format but with no actual numerical values. Perhaps you would like to specify them? No, I didn't think so. Who can possibly say that 300 deg is safe, but 299 deg isn't? The whole point is that it's a guide, not a rulebook.It is also a requirement under BHPA site risk assessment.
Is it? I tried a quick search of the BHPA website but couldn't see anything, but I could have missed it...Would it not contribute to the evidence base for the AAIB the insurers and the Coroner?
Pretty sure the AAIB doesn't get involved with us...TimOn Aug 14, 2015 11:00 AM, "Bob Johnston" <bobj1966@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:----Surely site wind direction depends on too many factors to simply state a defined limit, 30 degrees off the hill might be ok on a smooth evening but add in strong wind, thermals or both and maybe 15 off is too much, the guide can only ever be a guide and can't replace on the spot judgement, how ever we are all human so all make mistakes, we can't see the air so there is always going to be a margin of error, it's trying to squeeze that margin that sometimes results in problems.We all want to learn how to minimise risks but it is a adventure sport, never fool yourself that it isn't.
Sent from my iPhoneGreat post Carl. You explain our dilemma very well. We want to fly, have expended huge effort to be there but is it safe?
And that amounts to a best guess at the probability. A gamble on the odds.Every site in the guide has a wind direction range given. This range is evolved from (sometimes bitter) experience. Pilots often carry wind speed gauges and have a "personal limit" they apply but merely guess at the wind angle.
Nik acknowledges the wind angle was, perhaps, towards the stated limit for Liddington. It might be helpful for the sites officer to know whether Liddington limits now need review or, conversely, for pilots to have it confirmed that exceeding the stated limit takes them into pioneering territory.
Risks increase exponentially beyond the known limits and are raised by the power of the number of limits exceeded. So risk approaches certainty very soon after passing those limits.
Carl, please continue to watch them fly when your own assessment keeps you on the ground. You don't have a "comfort zone" that needs "expanding" you have a healthy survival instinct and a sound understanding of probability :-)
On Aug 14, 2015 9:23 AM, "Carl Foster" <pedwarpimp@gmail.com> wrote:--Thanks for the write up Nik. I'm glad to hear it wasn't any worst and you are recovering well and quickly by the sounds.
It's always hard when here hear about an incident especially when it's some one you've met and someone you know is very current and capable and safety concious as you come across from the role you play in TVHGC.
I think it is helpful to the person who has had the incident to talk about it and very helpful for others to learn from.
A question I ask myself and others a lot is how do you know/find/increase your comfort zones safely?. I have sat on the hill many times when others have flown and had great flights, while I'm not liking the conditions for one reason or another and then beat myself up on way home for not trying but this is a simple reminder that this is not always a bad thing.
A quote I heard while on a mountain biking course was "never say one more go". I've tried building that in to my subconcious, although it may not always fit with paragliding I do find it very relevant and useful for my flying as many times I've caught myself on days which I'm trying to get away from the hill in less than ideal Conditions or particularly in the tow environment. So I've tried to acknowledge a little earlier I'm getting tired or to the end of my patience, energy mindset or what ever it maybe and tell myself I'll have a few more goes, but might only have the one extra attempt, it helps me keep an open mind and not focused on taking any more risks than any other flight thinking it's my last attempt. (All or nothing so to speak)
Anyway I didn't plan on typing so much but as always trying to place some relevance on these incidents and how I can learn from them. If my thoughts opinions help others then even better.
Look forward to seeing more of your flying posts and videos of you flying in the near future.
Carl.
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