Yes Carl I accept that completely.
I wanted to contextualise your (our) dilemma within "risk taking".
We push our boundaries by extending them from a restricted set at first qualification all the way out to the predefined limits. That may take a cautious pilot several seasons.
All that time the actual risk taken ( probability of incident) may be broadly the same
Beyond that we start to explore outside those limits and the risk starts its exponential rise.
We don't encounter the hazard so we either decide it wasn't so risky after all or we admit we are choosing to accept an unquantified higher risk.
Nick's accident in theory now lowers our collective risk;-)
Later still after getting away with it and burying a few mates you wind your neck back in and pontificate on forums.
--I'm not sure I agree with this, Francis."You don't have a "comfort zone" that needs "expanding" you have a healthy survival instinct and a sound understanding of probability :-)"The trouble I think is too become better at anything you do, you need to push your boundaries, (Sensibly) otherwise, how do you progress?, In fact particularly in paragliding I think it would be all too easy to regress and your comfort zone gets smaller and smaller. The hard bit is to know how you push your boundaries carefully and sensibly?With paragliding or any extreme sport, I guess is the consequences of pushing too hard/ too fast can be severe.Anyway I digress.... (again)hope to see you all on the hill some time soon.
On Friday, August 14, 2015 at 10:18:14 AM UTC+1, francis wrote:Great post Carl. You explain our dilemma very well. We want to fly, have expended huge effort to be there but is it safe?
And that amounts to a best guess at the probability. A gamble on the odds.Every site in the guide has a wind direction range given. This range is evolved from (sometimes bitter) experience. Pilots often carry wind speed gauges and have a "personal limit" they apply but merely guess at the wind angle.
Nik acknowledges the wind angle was, perhaps, towards the stated limit for Liddington. It might be helpful for the sites officer to know whether Liddington limits now need review or, conversely, for pilots to have it confirmed that exceeding the stated limit takes them into pioneering territory.
Risks increase exponentially beyond the known limits and are raised by the power of the number of limits exceeded. So risk approaches certainty very soon after passing those limits.
Carl, please continue to watch them fly when your own assessment keeps you on the ground. You don't have a "comfort zone" that needs "expanding" you have a healthy survival instinct and a sound understanding of probability :-)
On Aug 14, 2015 9:23 AM, "Carl Foster" <pedwa...@gmail.com> wrote:Thanks for the write up Nik. I'm glad to hear it wasn't any worst and you are recovering well and quickly by the sounds.
It's always hard when here hear about an incident especially when it's some one you've met and someone you know is very current and capable and safety concious as you come across from the role you play in TVHGC.
I think it is helpful to the person who has had the incident to talk about it and very helpful for others to learn from.
A question I ask myself and others a lot is how do you know/find/increase your comfort zones safely?. I have sat on the hill many times when others have flown and had great flights, while I'm not liking the conditions for one reason or another and then beat myself up on way home for not trying but this is a simple reminder that this is not always a bad thing.
A quote I heard while on a mountain biking course was "never say one more go". I've tried building that in to my subconcious, although it may not always fit with paragliding I do find it very relevant and useful for my flying as many times I've caught myself on days which I'm trying to get away from the hill in less than ideal Conditions or particularly in the tow environment. So I've tried to acknowledge a little earlier I'm getting tired or to the end of my patience, energy mindset or what ever it maybe and tell myself I'll have a few more goes, but might only have the one extra attempt, it helps me keep an open mind and not focused on taking any more risks than any other flight thinking it's my last attempt. (All or nothing so to speak)
Anyway I didn't plan on typing so much but as always trying to place some relevance on these incidents and how I can learn from them. If my thoughts opinions help others then even better.
Look forward to seeing more of your flying posts and videos of you flying in the near future.
Carl.
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